Friday November 6, 2009
Poor silver. You never seem to hear anything about silver these days as gold is capturing all the headlines. Central banks are buying gold to hedge currency risk. Gold is the pinnacle investment for an inflation hedge as well as a safe haven investment. And lets not forget that gold has broken the psychological $1,000 barrier and keeps hitting record highs. So, what does silver have to say for itself?
There really isn't much to say about silver, except that it is riding on gold's coattails in the precious metals complex. Silver is an attractive investment for investors who like to buy the physical metal by the ounce or silver coins. Some even think silver has more leverage or upside potential than gold.
You can't help but recall that silver went up to $50 an ounce nearly 30 years ago when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market. Trading around $17.34, silver would appear to have a lot of upside potential when you look at a long-term chart. The only problem is that it is unlikely another dynamic duo will corner the market anytime in the future.
I might be giving the impression that silver is an ugly duckling, but that is not the case. In fact, silver has outperformed gold during the last year. Silver has risen 106% off the October 2008 lows, while gold has only risen 61% from its October 2008 lows. Silver has a long way to go before it hits record highs, but I would expect silver to at least keep pace with gold as long as the rally continues.
Thursday November 5, 2009
The Fed released their decision on interest rates yesterday and it is business as usual. This means they will keep interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future, which does absolutely nothing to help the dollar. Does this mean the same theme of a lower dollar and higher commodities will resume?
I'm sure the "short the dollar and long commodities trade" will pickup once again. The markets have an enormous appetite for risk, because it is apparent that the Fed and the government will give the markets everything they want. This is a liquidity driven market because of those reasons and it will be interesting to see how far traders take it to an extreme.
That being said, there is still a top in the commodities and stock markets that should hold. We are in strange times and there is no telling what will happen. The gold market is making quite a statement trading near $1,100 an ounce. However, the commodity indexes are consolidating below their highs. The dollar will have to make a strong break lower if commodities are to make new highs.
Tuesday November 3, 2009
Gold futures received a sharp boost from news that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sold 200 metric tones to India's central bank for $6.7 billion. The news caught many investors by surprise as China was originally thought to be the eventual purchaser and many thought it would be spread over a period of time. However, it went to India and it went quickly.
Gold traders saw this as a vote of confidence for the precious metal as they pushed prices to another record high. Gold closed $31 higher at $1,085 an ounce on Tuesday. It is a positive sign for the gold market that such a large purchase could take place with gold near record highs. I have to say it is also a sign that foreign countries want to diversify out of the dollar, which might paint an ominous sign for the dollar going forward.
Monday November 2, 2009
December coffee futures staged a large rally on Monday - up more than 5 percent. Coffee closed 6.45 cents higher at 142.35($1.4235 a pound). The technical picture looks very interesting in this market. It looks like coffee futures could be on the verge of a strong move higher.
A break above $146.50 would be the breakout point. Markets typically have a sharp run higher on a technical formation like this. Please remember that not all technical breakouts work and you must control your risk.
The fundamentals look positive for this market, but I can't say they suggest a rapid move higher at this point. I expect commodities to be very volatile throughout the next few weeks as the financial markets are at a critical stage right now. Technically, I would favor the upside in coffee unless there is a breakdown below the trendline - currently around $133.