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Grains Facing the Music

By February 12, 2013

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The grain markets have been under assault recently.  The weather in South America doesn't appear to be very threatening and it looks like large crops are becomming more of a sure thing.

On top of that, the USDA recently released their long term projections for crop numbers.  They do not look very bullish.  Ending stocks are expected to rise substantially for corn in the upcoming season.

Exports continue to be weak for corn and that is a major drag on the market.  The markets are setup to rebuild stocks in the 2013/14 season.  We said this last year at the same time and the weather changed that outlook in a hurry.  Will the same happen again this year?

This is what the grain markets are all about.  You never know what the weather is going to do 3 or 4 months from now.  That is what makes the commodities markets so fascinating...and they will always be like this.

The grain markets probably won't fall through the floor, but they won't have a substantial rally unless it looks like we will have weather problems in the U.S. this season.  Until then, rallies will probably be selling opportunities.

 

 

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